This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. There are only 14 more chairs remaining so that there will not be far more time to qualify if you are attempting to. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he will be a money match play of mine personally. There are better struggles to target if we are looking for 1st round knockouts however I will be focusing more on those in GPPs. I like the floor and the ceiling of Gordon here and that’s exactly why he’s the money play of this week. I don’t think Moret has the ability to actually examine the chin of Gordon’s that has appeared to be his main weakness recently. With the pace Gordon sets I think he’s 100+ upside into a choice win and I don’t see him becoming completed here so he should have a solid floor. I believe his flooring in a win is likely 80+ also which is totally fine for money games. This is a tricky feeble, but this is my personal preferred cash game spot of this week.
GPP drama of this week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I needed to go with Ngannou here. If he wins it is most likely that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and in his $8.8k salary which will place him on the $25k lineup. He’ll be quite chalky this week though so be sure to load him up if you’re multi-entering if you would like to get leverage within the field. I do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I’ll be targeting both sides of this struggle, but I do observe 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that can beat a lot of the fighters priced over him.
Underdog drama of this week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week because I am not picking any real underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only man who’d be considered an underdog I do believe will win and I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we’re getting him for $200 less than Greene but that I wouldn’t be surprised if Albini was the favored on the betting line moving into the conflicts. With these men being Heavyweights, it does not take much to acquire a knockout and should Albini can do that at $8k he can give me a rush in the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her previous fight also and she burned me scoring a 1st round submission. I’m going back into the fade though and trusting the same does not occur. On a card where I’m picking basically every favorite, I’d rather pick the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her 8.5k price tag. I am not certain that moving into the floor is in her very best interest in this struggle and when she remains standing I don’t see her paying off value in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I’d be taking some shots on Whitmire, however that I will probably only make ~20 and she won’t make my participant pool with that many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you Want my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 83-52 for +251.89un (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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