This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. There are only 14 more chairs remaining so that there won’t be much more time to qualify if you are attempting to. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week to max it if I could. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he’ll be a cash match play of mine . There are far better struggles to target if we’re looking for 1st round knockouts but I will be focusing more on those in GPPs. I like the ground and the ceiling of Gordon here and that’s exactly why he is the money play of this week. I don’t think Moret has the power to really test the chin of Gordon’s that has seemed to be his main weakness lately. With the speed Gordon sets I presume he has 100+ upside in a decision win and I really don’t see him getting finished here so he ought to have a solid floor. I think his floor in a win is probably 80+ also which is totally fine for money games. This is a tricky weak, but this is my personal preferred cash game place of this week.
GPP drama of this week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I had to proceed with Ngannou here. When he wins it is most likely that a 1st round knockout. That is +100 about the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and in his 8.8k salary which will place him on the 25k lineup. He will be very chalky this week though so be sure to load up on him if you’re multi-entering if you would like to get leverage within the area. I really do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I’ll be targeting both sides of this fight, but I do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that could beat a lot of the fighters priced above him.
Underdog play of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I really don’t love this card this week since I am not picking any real underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who’d be regarded as an underdog that I think will win and I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him for $200 less than Greene but that I wouldn’t be surprised if Albini was the favorite on the betting line moving into the fights. With these guys being Heavyweights, it does not take much to get a knockout and should Albini can do this at $8k he could give me a run at the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight as well and she burnt me scoring a 1st round submission. I’m going back to the fade here though and hoping the same doesn’t happen. On a card where I am picking basically every favorite, I’d rather pick the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire in her 8.5k price label. I am not sure that going into the ground is in her best interest in this fight and when she stays standing I do not see her paying off worth in a triumph. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I’d be taking some shots on Whitmire, but that I will likely only make ~20 and she will not make my participant pool with that many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 83-52 to get +251.89un (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
Disclaimer: This page includes affiliate links and MMA Odds Breaker is going to be paid if you make a purchase after clicking on the hyperlinks.
Read more here: http://roemastoana.de/?p=6846
