This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entries at the $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this battle goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking up a guillotine. Aside from that, I believe we have a pretty safe win here using Roberts and that is what I am looking for. I need the safer wins in cash and that I will be concerned about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I think we can get away from him at the GPPs in his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It will help us win in money games though and I’d be surprised if he had a low scoring win . I believe he is good for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with that in my cash lineup.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of the week and he’s the highest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a set up struggle for him to get a knockout and I think that is quite likely going to happen in the very first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my best plays of this week, but he is GPP only for me. We can’t trust him sufficient for money games, so that’s why I like Roberts more in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the very best lineup and even with high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that is too great for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they’re released. We get Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. In addition, I believe he could win in the 1st round with a submission and score above 90 points. That would provide him a good chance at being on the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs because I do not expect it to move all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we need to own“underdogs“ in our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think the obvious path to victory for Glover is on the ground and that’s precisely what I anticipate his game plan to be. I enjoy him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be among my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know folks were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a strong fade too… But I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I will have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling in defense to attempt to keep this fight on the toes. All the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla has the boxing of the two. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but won’t score highly, and I’d guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to cut it at $8.2k so I simply don’t see the way she ends up on the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83un (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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